Project Description

Case Study

Economic uncertainty Index

Representation of the uncertainty on the Web linked to economic, financial and political phenomena.


Identity

Moneyfarm was founded in March 2011 with a single mission: to make low-cost, low-stress wealth management a reality for everyone. Today, Moneyfarm is one of the largest digital wealth managers in Europe, regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

Goal of the project

The project involved the creation of two representative index of uncertainty relating to economic, financial and political phenomena known as:

  • Uncertainty index
  • Sentiment index

Uncertainty Index

Index that represents a proxy of propensity to invest.

SOURCES: Corriere Economia, Repubblica Economia, La Stampa Economia, IlSole24Ore, ItaliaOggi e MilanoFinanza. The first three sources are Italian generalist websites while the others areĀ  Italian specialized websites.

METODOLOGY:

  • Definition of a list of keywords of economic uncertainty related to the following five situations: the stock market (stock exchange, Piazza Affari, ..), financial markets (stocks, bonds, spreads, bot, btp, …), the banking system, real estate market, macroeconomics (ECB, Draghi, inflation, unemployment, employment, GDP, …);
  • list share with MoneyFarm for approval;
  • classification of articles downloaded from sources based on keywords;
  • index calculation normalizing it on the range of articles published by each source.

MONITORING: monthly.

Sentiment index

Sentiment index express by the Net towards the stock market (stock exchange, Piazza Affari, ..), the financial market (stocks, bonds, spreads, bot, btp) , and the real estate market through which you can analyse:

  • the users opinions;
  • the type of users interested or involved.

SOURCE: Twitter.

METODOLOGY:

  • harvest of all tweets that contain the hashtag related the defined context;
  • construction of the Sentiment Index and monitoring of the time series according to the polarity (positive, negative).

MONITORING: monthly.